Saturday, August 20, 2011

Fantasy Football 2011: Ten Draft Commandments

All of my friends know I love rap, in particularly Biggie, and he had a song in 1997 called the “Ten Crack Commandments”, one of my favorites, but I’m not here to give you advice on how to run your dope game. I am, however, here to give you some tips to use on draft day to help win you that elusive fantasy football championship. “And if you follow these rules, you’ll have mad bread to break up”.

I like this tier sheet, I would make a couple changes but for the most part it’s very niiice. (Just a not I’m not a huge Vick fan, sophomore slump anyone?)

So here are my Ten Draft Strategy Commandments:

(Based on a league w/ 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 D/ST, 1 K)

Rule 1: Don’t draft a QB in the 1st round, unless you want to waste a pick. In the NFL there are 32 teams, in our fantasy leagues there are 12 teams, meaning there are only 12 starting QBs in your league. There is also a lot of good depth at QB that can be had at later rounds. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com the Average Draft Position (ADP) in a 12 team league of Matt Schaub, Matt Ryan, and Ben Roethlisberger are 60.4, 62.5, and 72.1 respectively. Basically that means you can fill your roster with 2 (or 3) RBs and a WR before getting your QB. It’s an awesome strategy that some people don’t like, but I love.

Rule 2: Draft a backup QB, please! QB’s are easily hurt, it happens all the time. But don’t draft a backup with a high pick. Draft a high upside guy like Mathew Stafford or Mark Sanchez who won’t be starters but both have huge potential, especially Sanchez. He has a bunch of offensive weapons and the playbook has opened all the way up for him this year, Rex Ryan is saying it’s your time to shine kid.

Rule 3: Why O Why would you draft a TE before you have filled your RB, QB, and WR’s. Ok, I couldn’t think of a shorter title, but the rule remains, draft a TE after your other roster spots are filled. The TE position is grossly deep and you don’t want to draft a TE with a high pick, which most people do, wasting the pick on the likes of Gates, Finley, or Clark. All of the aforementioned were injured at some point last year. You can take that pick and invest it in a RB who could easily get 200 fantasy points for you. In the later rounds you can always look to Keller, Hernandez, Gronk, or Jimmy Graham.

Rule 4: Draft a whole lot of running backs. Like the old saying goes, you can never have enough of a good thing. In my personal league, RBs are king because QBs only get 4pt/TD so your RBs are the key to winning, even if your league format is QB 6pt/TD. However, 2nd or 3rd tier RBs are harder to predict because they touch the rock often, raising their injury risk. It’s nice to have a choice at RB, especially your flex position. Not to mention, you might hit the jackpot with a late pick that turns out to be this year’s Arian Foster.

Rule 5: Watch out for crowded backfields. Head coaches jobs are to win football games, not get our fantasy player 20 points a game. Therefore stay away from backfields that have a few good RB’s. I love Ryan Mathews, yes even after last year’s debacle he’s got great skills, but I wouldn’t waste a high pick on him because Mike Tolbert is there to take away touches, especially in the Red Zone. I would also say the same thing of LeSean McCoy; the iggles didn’t bring in Ronnie Brown to get water.

Rule 6: Always fill a RB/WR/TE spot with a running back. This rule is based on pure logic. Would you rather fill it with a player who gets 5-10 targets a game or a player who rushes the rock 15-20 times a game? I’ll put money on the RB getting 15 touches a game to give your team more points. If you follow Rule 4, then you’ll have a plethora of RBs to choose from.

Rule 7: Know your ADP’s. Average Draft Position. I mentioned ADP in Rule 1, and I’ll go into it more in depth with this rule. Say that you’re in love with Kevin Kolb now that he has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, and you think he’s prime for a breakout year, but you don’t know when to draft him. Look at your websites ADP. I use yahoo, and they give the ADP in the actual draft, everything now-a-days is right in front of you. According to fantasyfootballcalculator.com, in drafts Kolb is going in the 9th round, if you want to reach for him in the 8th or 7th, that’s cool, just don’t any earlier than that otherwise you’re wasting a pick on someone who could have been had in later rounds.

Rule 8: It’s iight to reach. If you like a player, like the example I mentioned in Rule 6, you can reach for him, just don’t reach too far. If you like Kolb that much, get him but be mindful of what round you’re taking him in.

Rule 9: Don’t take a D or K until the last 2 rounds. Yea sometimes defenses have amazing games, but most D’s do, so there’s really no point in picking one up where you could have had a break out WR or RB instead. Same thing goes for K. For the most part, D or K won’t win the week for you.

Rule 10: Mock draft, be flexible, and don’t outsmart yourself. Like they say practice makes perfect. Mocking can help you understand ADP better and you will develop some tactics. But that leads me to this, BE FLEXIBLE, in your league some players will be better or worse draftees than the people you’re mocking with, so the plan you have and the players you want might not be there. But because you know your ADP’s and did a lot of mock drafts you will know the next best player for your team. Don’t outsmart yourself by taking too many risks, which usually backfire. Play it smart, stick to your strategy and adjust when you need to adjust and you will have a nice squad.

Happy Drafting Everyone and Good Luck!!!

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